Industry analyst Daniel Rasmuth says IT executives who ignore scenario planning do so at their own risk. While Rasmuth acknowledges that forecasting future business conditions is guesswork to a certain degree, he believes that scenario planning allows managers to make better informed guesses. Scenario planning gives businesses a basis for various contingencies that may arise, and can alert them to both potential threats and opportunities that may arise out of various circumstances. Rasmuth warns that the Great Recession’s negative impact was worsened by the failure of organizations to game out scenarios involving unusual circumstances and systemic stresses.
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